Hepatitis B Virus in China

Emerging Markets -- August 2008

  Introduction:

China is one of the most rapidly growing pharmaceutical markets in the world. It has a vast prevalent population of hepatitis B virus (HBV) patients, a burgeoning middle class with growing economic power, and increasing access to medical care. These factors promise multinational pharmaceutical companies significant opportunity for double-digit sales growth as demand for Western branded HBV therapies continues to grow throughout China.

  Questions Answered in This Report:

HBV is the leading cause of end-stage liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma in China, where an estimated 86 million people are infected with the virus. How will the prevalence of HBV change between 2007 and 2017? What effect will ongoing vaccination programs and other government initiatives have? How will diagnosis and drug-treatment rates change in urban and rural regions of China?

Like their counterparts in the United States and Europe, Chinese physicians are most influenced by a drug’s efficacy when prescribing for their patients. What other factors drive Chinese physicians’ prescribing habits? How do physicians choose between branded Western drugs and domestically manufactured equivalents when treating HBV?

The HBV market in China is growing more rapidly than the markets in the United States, Europe, and Japan: all drug classes are experiencing annual double-digit sales growth. What was the size of the HBV market in 2007? How large will the market be in 2012? How do branded Western drugs fare against Chinese competitors? Which drugs will dominate the market by 2012?

  Scope:

Markets covered: China.

Primary research: 90 physician surveys in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Separate in-depth interviews with 28 medical experts.

Epidemiology: Prevalence of HBV by setting (urban versus rural); by city; by type of disease (acute versus chronic); and by HBeAg status. Ten-year epidemiology forecasts through 2017.

Market forecast features: Our analysis evaluates the size of the population with access to medical care, rates of HBV diagnosis, and rates of HBV treatment with Western drugs. We include a detailed forecast for two HBV drug classes and leading products over 2007-2012, using a combination of historical trend analysis and an epidemiology-based, bottom-up market model.