Emerging Hepatitis C Therapies

Pharmacor -- June 2007

  Introduction:

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major global health problem and a leading cause of chronic liver disease in the major pharmaceutical markets under study. Ample opportunity exists for novel therapies in the HCV market because the few therapies available for HCV-infected patients show relatively poor efficacy and tolerability. The HCV pipeline is robust, with a broad range of emerging therapeutic approaches. Novel HCV targeted therapies can substantially improve treatment outcomes and tap into this rapidly expanding market.

  Questions Answered in This Report:

The HCV pipeline consists of a broad range of candidates that have the potential to substantially change HCV treatment. Which classes and products do key opinion leaders believe represent the greatest clinical potential? What is the market opportunity for these agents?

Increasing diagnosis and treatment of naive HCV patients will drive down the size of this patient segment while dramatically increasing the number of treatment nonresponders through 2021. How will this shift in the size of HCV patient segments affect medical practice in the G7, and what will be the impact on drug sales?

We forecast that by 2011, novel HCV antivirals will launch into a market currently dominated by Schering-Plough’s Peg-Intron and Roche’s Pegasys. How will physicians use these novel agents? Will they use them in combination with interferons or ribavirin or in place of them? Which patients will be the main users of these novel agents at launch? In 2016? In 2021?

Thought-leading physicians tell us that they are treating increasing numbers of patients with mild disease, often without performing liver biopsies. How extensive is this trend? How will it affect drug sales over the study decade? What other changes in medical practice are expected to impact future drug sales?

  Scope:

Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.

Primary research: Interviews with 22 thought-leading hepatologists and gastroenterologists.

Epidemiology: Total HCV prevalence, prevalence of HCV viremia, diagnosed prevalence, drug-treated prevalence, and drug-treated population.

Population segments in market forecast: Treatment-naive and treatment nonresponders.

Emerging therapies: Phase II: 19 drugs; Phase III: 2 drugs. Coverage of 33 select preclinical and Phase I products.

Market forecast features: Using a proprietary, incidence- and mortality-based patient-flow model, we forecast the population sizes and drug sales for treatment-naive and nonresponder patient segments through 2021.